It was eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
