A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
